MBB North Texas Men’s Basketball Mid-Season Review

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We’re just past the halfway mark of the 2016-2017 season for the Mean Green Men’s Basketball team. North Texas faces some headwinds coming into the back half of their schedule and are at risk of missing the postseason altogether. The top half of the conference is pretty solid so there is no hiding behind weak opponents to pad stats and claim easy wins.

Perhaps the biggest problem facing the Mean Green is point production, as shown by their ranking in Scoring Offense (#12), Field Goal Percentage (#11), and 3-Point Field Goal Percentage (#14). Also, whenever a team gets hot shooting North Texas has generally not fared well despite a decent ranking in Scoring Defense (#4), Field Goal Defense (#3), and 3-Point Field Goal Defense (#3) as the offense can’t keep up when the defense fails to stop the opposing teams from scoring.

We’re at a point where team stats in the conference have pretty much stabilized and shouldn’t experience any dramatic shifting between now and the end of the season, so it’s time for some fearless predictions for the remaining games in January.

Here are the stats for North Texas:

Scoring Offense #12 (65.5 PPG)
Scoring Defense #4 (68.5 PPG)
Scoring Margin #11 (-3.0)
Field Goal Percent #11 (0.407)
Field Goal Percent Defense #3 (0.410)
3-Point FG Percent #14 (0.277)
3-Point FG Percent Defense #3 (0.329)
3-Point FG Made #2 76 Made 5.1 Avg/Gm
Free Throw Percent #9 (0.682)
Opp. Free Throw Percent #3 (0.729)
Rebounding Offense #7 552 Ttl 36.8 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Defense #11 558 Ttl 37.2 Avg/Gm
Offensive Rebounds #4 161 Ttl 10.7 Avg/Gm
Defensive Rebounds #6 391 Ttl 26.1 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Margin #9 -0.4
Turnovers – 212 TEAM 14.1 Avg/Gm
Turnovers – 212 Opponent 14.1 Avg/Gm
Turnover Margin #7 0.00
Blocked Shots #6 3.80 Avg/Gm
Assists #14 10.33 Avg/Gm
Steals #6 6.53 Avg/Gm

Here is the schedule for January:

Date	Opponent	Location	Time / Result
01/14/17	at Rice *	Houston, TX	2:00 p.m. CT
01/19/17	at Southern Miss *	Hattiesburg, MS	7:00 p.m. CT
01/21/17	at Louisiana Tech *	Ruston, LA	6:00 p.m. CT
01/26/17	vs. Charlotte *	The Super Pit	7:00 p.m. CT
01/28/17	vs. Old Dominion *	The Super Pit	2:00 p.m. CT

@Rice (11-6 1-3)

Wins – Charlotte
Losses – Middle Tennessee, UAB, ODU

Scoring Offense #2 (82.8 PPG)
Scoring Defense #12 (74.8 PPG)
Scoring Margin #3 (8.1)
Field Goal Percent #1 (0.483)
Field Goal Percent Defense #9 (0.436)
3-Point FG Percent #3 (0.389)
3-Point FG Percent Defense #6 (0.341)
3-Point FG Made #2 153 Made 9.0 Avg/Gm
Free Throw Percent #6 (0.712)
Opp. Free Throw Percent #1 (0.733)
Rebounding Offense #4 641 Ttl 37.7 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Defense #3 548 Ttl 32.2 Avg/Gm
Offensive Rebounds #6 182 Ttl 10.7 Avg/Gm
Defensive Rebounds #4 459 Ttl 27.0 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Margin #2 +5.5
Turnovers – 264 TEAM 15.5 Avg/Gm
Turnovers – 242 Opponent 14.2 Avg/Gm
Turnover Margin #9 -1.29
Blocked Shots #10 3.29 Avg/Gm
Assists #4 15.00 Avg/Gm
Steals #5 6.71 Avg/Gm

Given that North Texas is 0-5 for 2016-2017 on the road and 12-44 (.214) in the Benford era, I don’t see this being a win. Rice is the best 1 conference win team and plays good, disciplined basketball. Rice took MTSU to the wire the previous Saturday on top of Rice running the #2 scoring offense in the conference, I don’t see how North Texas can overcome such headwinds in this came.

Fearless Prediction: LOSS

@Southern Miss (5-10 2-1)

Wins – UTSA, UTEP
Losses – Louisiana Tech

Scoring Offense #14 (61.8 PPG)
Scoring Defense #8 (71.8 PPG)
Scoring Margin #14 (-10.0)
Field Goal Percent #12 (0.405)
Field Goal Percent Defense #8 (0.436)
3-Point FG Percent #11 (0.300)
3-Point FG Percent Defense #9 (0.362)
3-Point FG Made #8 92 Made 6.1 Avg/Gm
Free Throw Percent #13 (0.650)
Opp. Free Throw Percent #5 (0.702)
Rebounding Offense #11 516 Ttl 34.4 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Defense #10 535 Ttl 35.7 Avg/Gm
Offensive Rebounds #13 128 Ttl 8.5 Avg/Gm
Defensive Rebounds #8 388 Ttl 25.9 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Margin #10 -1.3
Turnovers – TEAM 238 15.9 Avg/Gm
Turnovers – Opponent 192 12.8 Avg/Gm
Turnover Margin #14 -3.07
Blocked Shots #12 2.73 Avg/Gm
Assists #10 12.33 Avg/Gm
Steals #14 4.67 Avg/Gm

Southern Miss is in the bottom half of nearly every statistic; North Texas is all over the place. Still this is a road game and North Texas does not do well while on the road. Since joining CUSA, Southern Miss leads the series 3-1 with the sole North Texas win taking place in the Super Pit in 2016. Finally, North Texas is averaging 66.5 points per game while allowing on average 69.125 points per game. North Texas has lost every game where it has scored less than its current season average. In order for North Texas to have a chance at winning the game, the Mean Green must try score more than 66 points as they are 6-4 when they do.

Fearless Prediction: LOSS (but is closer to a coin flip)

@Louisiana Tech (10-6 2-1)

Wins – Southern Miss, UTEP
Losses – UTSA

Scoring Offense #4 (77.3 PPG)
Scoring Defense #2 (63.3 PPG)
Scoring Margin #1 (14.0)
Field Goal Percent #4 (0.469)
Field Goal Percent Defense #8 (0.399)
3-Point FG Percent #8 (0.338)
3-Point FG Percent Defense #1 (0.296)
3-Point FG Made #4 124 Made 7.8 Avg/Gm
Free Throw Percent #5 (0.716)
Opp. Free Throw Percent #8 (0.686)
Rebounding Offense #3 610 Ttl 38.1 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Defense #5 550 Ttl 34.4 Avg/Gm
Offensive Rebounds #10 149 Ttl 9.3 Avg/Gm
Defensive Rebounds #1 461 Ttl 28.8 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Margin #5 +3.8
Turnovers – 208 TEAM 13.0 Avg/Gm
Turnovers – 233 Opponent 14.6 Avg/Gm
Turnover Margin #5 +1.56
Blocked Shots #2 5.69 Avg/Gm
Assists #1 17.13 Avg/Gm
Steals #2 7.00 Avg/Gm

Louisiana Tech is a solid team that ranks in the top half of most statistical categories. They are a good rebounding team, share the ball well, and play good defense. North Texas has struggled against teams that play with solid basketball fundamentals, with some of those struggles resulting in blowout losses.

Fearless Prediction: LOSS

Charlotte (7-8 1-3)

Wins – North Texas
Losses – Rice, Western Kentucky, Marshall

Scoring Offense #3 (79.1 PPG)
Scoring Defense #13 (83.4 PPG)
Scoring Margin #12 (-4.3)
Field Goal Percent #5 (0.452)
Field Goal Percent Defense #14 (0.467)
3-Point FG Percent #1 (0.395)
3-Point FG Percent Defense #13 (0.374)
3-Point FG Made #3 117 Made 7.8 Avg/Gm
Free Throw Percent #3 (0.741)
Opp. Free Throw Percent #2 (0.730)
Rebounding Offense #14 490 Ttl 32.7 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Defense #13 613 Ttl 40.9 Avg/Gm
Offensive Rebounds #12 131 Ttl 8.7 Avg/Gm
Defensive Rebounds #14 359 Ttl 23.9 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Margin #14 -8.2
Turnovers – 202 TEAM 13.5 Avg/Gm
Turnovers – 243 Opponent 16.2 Avg/Gm
Turnover Margin #2 +2.73
Blocked Shots #9 3.33 Avg/Gm
Assists #9 12.80 Avg/Gm
Steals #3 7.00 Avg/Gm

At the time of the writing of this article, Charlotte is in the middle a three game losing streak. Before the 49ers face of the Mean Green in the Super Pit in Denton, TX on January 26th, they have to face Louisiana Tech (likely loss). Southern Miss (likely win), and Old Dominion (likely loss), so it’s possible Charlotte will be hungry to get their third win in conference play and second against North Texas for the season. It’s quite likely that North Texas may be winless in conference but will be playing at home. One unknown is how healthy the Mean Green will be. A big scoring threat, Deckie Johnson, has sat out several games lately due to a hip injury. If the full roster is active and available, the odds may be more in favor for the Mean Green this time around in addition to playing in their home arena.

Fearless Prediction: LOSS

Old Dominion (10-6 3-1)

Wins – North Texas, Rice, Western Kentucky
Losses – Marshall

Scoring Offense #13 (62.1 PPG)
Scoring Defense #1 (59.2 PPG)
Scoring Margin #5 (+2.9)
Field Goal Percent #14 (0.378)
Field Goal Percent Defense #1 (0.394)
3-Point FG Percent #12 (0.298)
3-Point FG Percent Defense #13 (0.338)
3-Point FG Made #13 76 Made 5.1 Avg/Gm
Free Throw Percent #14 (0.619)
Opp. Free Throw Percent #15 (0.629)
Rebounding Offense #1 614 Ttl 40.9 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Defense #7 524 Ttl 34.9 Avg/Gm
Offensive Rebounds #1 230 Ttl 15.3 Avg/Gm
Defensive Rebounds #9 384 Ttl 25.6 Avg/Gm
Rebounding Margin #1 +6.0
Turnovers – 186 TEAM 12.4 Avg/Gm
Turnovers – 219 Opponent 14.6 Avg/Gm
Turnover Margin #4 +2.20
Blocked Shots #3 5.13 Avg/Gm
Assists #8 12.80 Avg/Gm
Steals #5 6.93 Avg/Gm

The Monarchs will have faced off against Southern Miss (likely win), Louisiana Tech (coin flip), Charlotte (likely win), and Rice (coin flip), so it is possible they will be coming in with a record around 13-7 6-2. The previous matchup against the Mean Green was an ugly defensive battle but the Monarchs held the Mean Green to their second fewest points scored in a game in the 2016-2017 season. Old Dominion plays solid defense and crashes the offensive boards well on top of that leading to more second chance points. I don’t see how the Mean Green can overcome this deficit even though they will be playing at home.

Fearless Prediction: LOSS

Conference USA Basketball Tournament

Only the top 12 schools will make the tournament and North Texas, UTEP, and Florida International are all currently winless so far this season. If the Mean Green fail to make the conference tournament I do not see how new Athletic Director Wren Baker retains Coach Benford, especially if North Texas is mathematically eliminated before the end of the regular season.

Chances at Least a .500 Season Are Fading Fast

North Texas currently sits at 6-10 meaning out of the remaining 14 games, the Mean Green must win 9 of those games to finish 15-15 on the regular season. Southern Miss (2x), @Florida Atlantic, @Florida International, and UTEP are all must wins with upsets needed in five other games against Charlotte, Old Dominion, Rice (2x), Louisiana Tech (2x), UTSA, @Western Kentucky, and @Marshall.

*All stats are based off of the CUSA Men’s Basketball Stats gathered through 1/10/2017